Is another coup imminent in Turkey?

by omouggos

Will another coup occur in Turkey?

Will another coup occur in Turkey? (image from nbcnews.com)

I am not sure how seriously the following warnings should be taken, but it is interesting to note that there is talk in Turkey of another attempted coup occurring. Almost a week ago Hasan Atilla Uğur, a retired Turkish military officer, told Yeni SafakBe prepared against the second [coup] attempt. And it’s going to happen very soon. This is very certain information.

He continued, “We are all in a euphoria of victory. But I am warning Turkey. No one should think ‘Ok, it’s over. Turkey is on track now. The U.S. cannot do anything. FETÖ cannot attack anymore, the PKK cannot do anything more, we have broken the back of these organizations.” He also claimed the U.K. was fomenting an uprising in southeast Turkey

Uğur is not the only sounding the alarm. In a recent article, Pro-Erdoğan journalist Ibrahim Karagul asks “Will there be another coup attempt?” He admonishes “Nobody should take the easy way out for anything, thinking, “O.K., this is over.”” Beyond the machinations of FETÖ, the PKK and the PYD he identifies “security-centric supra-national organizations [i.e. NATO]” as a threat to Turkey. He claims that the terrorist organizations threatening Turkey are supported by her “allies” and that the July 15 attempted coup “is clearly the U.S.’s plan.” Finally Karagul states, “We also projected that they will attack again, that they are making even more treacherous preparations.

What is particularly interesting about Karagul’s claims, is that he, a journalist well connected to Erdoğan, is propounding a narrative that Turkey’s ostensible ally the US is in fact her enemy and is plotting her overthrow. It appears that Karagul is not the only Turk to believe such things, as according to a Turkish survey 33% of respondents believed the US “hatched” the July 15 coup. It seems that the relationship between the US and Turkey is a strange one indeed.

However, what is of greater importance is what are we to make of Uğur’s and Karagul’s warnings that another attempted coup is likely? As I see it there are three possible explanations. Firstly, it could be that whoever conducted and supported the July 15 coup, is in fact preparing another coup. Either the Turkish state, having forewarning of this possibility, has notified Uğur and Karagul to sound the alarm to the Turkish people or the duo are prescient enough to come to this conclusion on their own.

I must say that I find this scenario a bit unlikely. Why would the coup plotters, who failed on their first attempt even though they had the element of surprise, think that a second attempt would be anymore likely to succeed, especially given the currently heightened security in Turkey and the purging of suspected putschist from the Turkish military and state.

The second possibility is that Uğur and Karagul are simply government agents attempting to fear-monger the populace into further supporting Erdoğan and his political machinations. We should remember that the 3 month state of emergency instituted following the July 15 coup, is almost due to expire, yet Erdoğan seems keen to extend it. He arguedIt would be in Turkey’s benefit to extend the state of emergency for three months. … They (critics) say one year isn’t right for Turkey. Let’s wait and see, maybe 12 months won’t be enough.” One could argue that there is no need of an extension as, due to the post-coup purges, the threat to the Turkish state no longer exists. To counter such criticisms, hyping the threat of another imminent coup, however imaginary and unfounded that threat may be in reality, would provide a pretext to further extend the state of emergency.

Providing support to this possibility, is the similarity of Uğur’s and Karagul’s warnings. Compare what Uğur says, “No one should think ‘Ok, it’s over’” to Karagul writing “Nobody should take the easy way out for anything, thinking, “O.K., this is over.”” One can’t help but suspect that such similarities are not coincidental. Maybe Uğur and Karagul were given their talking points by someone in the Turkish government.

The third possibility is that another coup is about to occur but that it will be a false flag event staged by Erdoğan and his minions to further facilitate their political designs.

Only time will tell if these warnings of a possible second coup in Turkey will come true, and even if they do one has to wonder whether this will be a genuine coup attempt or a staged event. Even if nothing happens, the threat of another possible coup may be of great use for Erdoğan and his plotting. Either way I recommend everyone pay attention to the always interesting on goings in Turkey.

O Mouggos

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